Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has has something to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
