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Mounting concerns are present about the potential of warfare involving Horn of Africa neighbors, Ethiopia and Eritrea, as confrontational rhetoric has escalated in the past few weeks.

What Has Ethiopia Said?

Ethiopia's, being landlocked, requests for entry to the maritime outlet through Eritrean territory has provoked a intense rhetorical conflict.

The Ethiopian leader first openly declared in 2023 that his country's maritime access was an crucial concern, comments that Eritrean authorities dismissed.

Diplomatic connections between the two countries have often been tense. Following a prolonged battle for independence, the Eritrean state, which has a 1,350km (840-mile) Red Sea coastline, formally separated from Ethiopian rule in the early 1990s, making it landlocked.

Subsequently, a territorial conflict erupted in which numerous people died.

Latest Comments from Ethiopian Leadership

Abiy and military leader General Birhanu Jula have directly stated sovereignty of Eritrea's southern port of the port of Assab – about 60km from the border - and implied the desire to seize it militarily.

On 1 September, Abiy said the country's "mistake" of being denied passage to the sea as a because of Eritrea secession would be "rectified in the future".

The Ethiopian envoy to neighboring Kenya, retired Gen Bacha Debele, said that Assab was "Ethiopian property" and would be given back "using武力".

Eritrean Reaction to the Statements

Despite ongoing threats from Ethiopian officials, Eritrea's reaction has been limited to short statements on social media from Information Minister the minister.

The minister has dismissed Ethiopia's push for access to the Red Sea calling it "dangerous" and a "negative policy" of "expansionism" – a approach of reclaiming lost territory.

Eritrean authorities cautioned on 16 September that moves to justify "obvious provocation" would have major implications for the Ethiopian government and its neighbors and is a "limit that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Defense Activities on the Region

Currently, there are few indications of large-scale army activities in the border areas between the two countries.

Nevertheless, in Ethiopia, government media has shown training completions of numerous trainees at different defense facilities.

The head of personnel division of the defense force, Lt Gen Hachalu Sheleme, commented lately in an interview that the army was in a "secure situation" as "many thousands of young people" were enlisting, which he said was "a message to our enemies".

Historical Roots of the Dispute

For more than half a century from 1890, Eritrea was ruled by Italian rulers.

After the end of Italian rule, it was then administered by the British military before becoming a federated part of Ethiopia.

But in the early 1960s Emperor Haile Selassie I cancelled this agreement and Eritrea became fully incorporated into Ethiopia.

A extended internal conflict followed, concluding with military reversal in the early 1990s. Autonomy was then approved by Eritreans in a referendum in 1993.

Briefly in the 1990s, there were friendly connections between the leadership in Addis Ababa and Asmara, but they disagreed over the precise positioning of their common border, leading to conflict in 1998.

Although this concluded in a truce in 2000, it was never fully implemented, and the two nations remained at odds.

This situation improved in 2018, when Abiy made gestures to Eritrean President the president. The both leaders signed a declaration that the war was finished – a decision that earned Abiy the international recognition.

The both administrations were then allies in Ethiopia's recent internal conflict in Tigray.

But diplomatic connections have subsequently deteriorated again.